I think the Best Supporting categories are the toughest nuts to crack, often a fine performance counts as a rare sympathy vote for a film that isn't nominated in any other category. This year's real wild card are the actresses involved in Woody Allen's latest which employs a trio of supporting ladies in Freida Pinto, Anna Friel and Lucy Punch - but at this point its anyone's guess on how pivotal they become to the assigned male characters. Another performance that I would have included is the perfectionist mom character that Annette Benning plays in The Kids Are All Right, but if you wait until I get to the Best actress category you'll figure out why I removed her from the list. Here is yesterday's predictions for Best Cinematography and tomorrow, I'll dig into the Best Supporting Actors predictions. Once again my vote on who I think will win is the picture above - trust me I'm just as surprised as you are.
Five Noms:
Amy Adams for The Fighter
Comment: Not sure if Amy Adams' character of Charlene is the equivalent to Rocky's Adrian, but if Paramount book a strategic November or December slot, I'm thinking that period pic will give Adams' her third Best Supporting nod after Junebug and Doubt.
Hiam Abbass for Miral
Comment: Now that the veteran actress is no longer an unknown (I'm thinking that her part in The Visitor brought her more attention than her part in Spielberg's Munich), I think if Miral really takes off on the festival circuit and finds a theatrical release for the late Fall, then Abbass' take as Hind Husseini - the head of the orphanage with find its fan amongst the older voters.
Elle Fanning for Somewhere
Comment: Safe to say that Coppola writes some unforgettable female characters, I think the younger Fanning has gained enough acting experience in her own bio and mentorship from older sister to pull off a "Tatum O'Neal". Here she plays a Cleo, a daughter who pulls her addicted father out of his slumber. If she arrives a little late in the film, then Fanning looks good for this category.
Melissa Leo for The Fighter
Comment: A matriarch of the two boxer brothers Dickie (Christian Bale) and Micky (Mark Wahlberg), my thinking is Leo's character might be in the forefront, because this is the year the Academy finally invites David O. Russell to the big party. Plus who can forget her in Frozen River, for which she earned her first acting nom for Best Leading Actress.
Rebecca Hall for The Town
Comment: Thank god that not all bank tellers got replaced by ATMs. Those killer freckles swooned plenty in of fans of Vicky Cristina Barcelona, I'm throwing the dice on this film as a whole, my thinking is it might compete with the big guys in September and benefit from a possible TIFF spotlight. Hall will play a bank teller who basically attracts two sets of eyes in which I beleive belong to Ben Affleck and Jeremy Renner.
Dark horse picks:
Jacki Weaver for Animal Kingdom
Comment: At first, Weaver's oddball character is somewhat lost in the backdrop until she effectively changes the decor of this Aussie pic with a character that lingers well after the film has ended. I think SPC releases this at the midway point.
Lesley Manville for Another Year
Comment: It's a given that a Mike Leigh film will hold some powerful lead and supporting performances. Manville fits that description.
Bryce Dallas Howard for Hereafter
Comment: Clint Eastwood films play especially well for the Academy voters, but for the time being, Howard's character and her involvement are questions marks only.
Naomi Watts for Mother and Child
Comment: If Academy members remember this complex character from last year's TIFF or this year's Sundance or this May (which is when SPC releases the picture) then Watts could add this to her only other previous acting nod for 2003's 21 Grams, but something tells me that it is her part in a political thriller alongside Sean Penn that should get that second nod.
Amber Heard for The Rum Diary
Comment: Center of a love triangle between Johnny Depp and Aaron Eckhart's character, with significant screen time, Heard's character of Chenault could attract significant attention from men's heart and voting members. A campaign will be mounted after it probably screens and gets bought in Cannes.
Saoirse Ronan for The Way Back
Comment: A film that is distinctly driven by the presence of male characters, I think Ronan has a pretty good chance for a second Best Supporting nod after Atonement.
Of course, I'd like to know your thoughts & let us know what you think might be missing.
Comments
Posted by Evan on 2010-03-11 at 13:54:50
Love reading these initial thoughts, and love the idea behind this feature. A little more grist for the mill:
-Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit: recently announced as Maddie in the Coen Brothers movie, this is True Grit's biggest part. If reports are true that the Coens will hew closely to the book and not the John Wayne movie, then Steinfeld is the narrator and conscience of the story.
- Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole: a onetime Oscar-beloved actress in a showy, griefy role that was boffo for Tyne Daly on Broadway.
- Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right: who is lead? who supports? Think all three principals (Moore, Bening, and Ruffalo) from this movie could make it.
- Hope Davis, The Special Relationship: playing Hillary Clinton in the new Peter Morgan-Tony Blair thing.
- Mila Kunis, Black Swan: who knows.
Posted by Iheartsubtitles on 2010-03-11 at 18:11:49
True Grit: Not sure why, but my thinking is when evaluating performance that narration doesn't work as well.
Wiest is an interesting selection. My feeling is Fox Searchlight might support the Hilary Swank Betty Anne Waters and Franco in 127 Hours, leaving Kidman and Eckhart and essentially leave this film in the cold.
Kids Are All Right: As I mentioned to several people - with this film you get the sense that the role of the protag is shared by those 3, but then you could say it Mia's character's story. Moore has the slight bit more room and there are times when she is the focal point...I think it will depend on how the film can carry itself post Summer time.
The Special Relationship - my understanding is that this is an HBO film (leaning towards a non-theatrical release)?
I'm so iffy about Black Swan ---- its the true wild card of all categories.
Posted by Evan on 2010-03-12 at 12:59:44
Thanks for your comments, and for this ongoing feature. Steinfeld's character in the novel, True Grit, doesn't just provide narration though; she IS the story. Cogburn (Bridges' part) was blown up front and center as a vehicle for old John Wayne in the 1969 movie, but he certainly isn't the protagonist in the Portis source material. Will be interesting to read the adapted screenplay.
Posted by steandric on 2010-03-17 at 22:42:55
Sorry, the official credits order of "Mother and Child" is Naomi Watts, Annette Bening, Kerry Washington, Jimmy Smits, and Samuel L Jackson. Ms. Watts is the indisputed lead of this film, and the fact that she has been seen promoting the film with the studio in a leading actress capacity at TIFF, SBIFF, Sundance...etc indicates that indeed she is the lead playing a leading role. Regards.
http://www.sonyclassics.com/motherandchild/
"Mother and Child"
Starring: Naomi Watts, Annette Bening, Kerry Washington, Jimmy Smits, and Samuel L Jackson.
http://www.sonyclassics.com/motherandchild/
Posted by Dan on 2010-03-23 at 23:15:45
Like the Jackie Weaver call. Melissa Leo as well. She plays the mother of Dick amd Mickey. It's a supporting role but a promiment one.
Sissy Spacek in Get Low got some good words at Toronto. In my personal picks I have Melissa Leo, Julianne Moore ( The Kids Are Alright, Saoirse Ronan ( The Way Back ) Emily Blunt ( The Adjustment Bureau ) and Sissy Spacek ( Get Low ) But all your picks and dark horses are good ones.