The Conversation: 2015 Oscar Predix: Still Julianne Moore… Best Actress Win in the Bag

The Nominations: Best Actress
Marion Cotillard in “Two Days, One Night”
Felicity Jones in “The Theory of Everything”
Julianne Moore in “Still Alice”
Rosamund Pike in “Gone Girl”
Reese Witherspoon in “Wild”

Shoulda Been a Contender: Essie Davis for “The Babadook”

The effective kernel at the supremely masterful The Babadook is the performance of Essie Davis. Genre films have long been left out of the awards mulch, but it would have been great to see the Academy stop padding out this category with nicely rounded yet milquetoast performances (Wild; The Theory of Everything).

Should Win: Julianne Moore for “Still Alice”

It’s true—it’s a great performance that saves an otherwise square film from slipping into banality.

Could Win: None

Unfortunately, it seems there’s little room for surprise in this year’s Best Actress category.

Will Win: Julianne Moore for “Still Alice”

Winning every single award show before it including tomorrow’s Indie Spirits, this is one of those year’s where the Best Actress statue will be handled to a veteran that’s been overlooked plenty of times before. She’s one of the very few double nominees to lose both categories (in 2001 for The Hours and Far From Heaven), and she’s been just plain overlooked for sterling work in the past (like a supporting performance in A Single Man).