Come post-Cannes time, ask me about my bottom five nomination predictions I’ve listed below, and I’ll probably want to retract some of my picks – this year’s competition in Best Adapted Screenplay is fierce. We have a strong contingent of scribes from the U.K in David Seidler’s The King’s Speech, Rowan Joffe’s Brighton Rock, William Monahan’s London Boulevard and Alex Garland’s Never Let Me Go. Studio films which I figure have a better than average chance at seeing Ryan Murphy and Jennifer Salt’s Eat, Pray, Love, Charles Randolph/Marshall Herskovitz/Edward Zwick’s Love and Other Drugs and Ben Affleck/Peter Craig/Sheldon Turner’s The Town. Finally these are three heavy hitters that are interchangeable with my picks below: David Lindsay-Abaire’s Rabbit Hole, Bruce Robinson’s The Rum Diary and Aaron Sorkin’s The Social Network. As usual, my pick for the winner in this category is in the pic above.
Rowan Joffe for The American
Comments: Based on Martin Booth’s 1990 novel A Very Private Gentleman, this is one more great vehicle for a George Clooney solo effort weapons maker. My big concern is the early September date. Anton Corbijn
Jez & John Butterworth for Fair Game
Comments: Based on Valerie Plame Wilson’s 2007 memoir Fair Game: My Life as a Spy, My Betrayal by the White House, if the Butterworths add enough dramatic weight to an already well-publicized storyline and Doug Liman treats the material as a thinking man’s Fahrenheit 9/11, then Oscar will come calling. The film has no distributor yet.
Rula Jebreal for Miral
Comments: Based on Jebreal’s 2004 novel first published in Italian, wrapping the touchy, tensions between Palestine and Israeli in a storyline that will make a point about the pointlessness of the tensions and add the stylistic flourishes of Schnabel and I think we have a solid contender. The film has no distributor, but a Cannes showing can work wonders as it did for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly.
Joel & Ethan Coen for True Grit
Comments: Based on a 1968 novel by Charles Portis, the Coen bros. will be basing themselves off the book, instead of remaking the film. Coens are contenders, have been nominated four times before and have won twice for Fargo and No Country for Old Men. I know its unfair, but these guys should win again.
Peter Weir for The Way Back
Comments: Based on Slawomir Rawicz’s 1995 memoir, The Long Walk: The True Story of a Trek to Freedom, if this is lush as I expect it to be, then Weir can count on more than just a best screenplay nod. It’ll be interesting to see who picks this up, and what kind of strategy they employ, as the film could be a tentpole summer pic, which would mean the release could be pushed back to 2011. Weir actually received one Best Screenplay nom for Green Card.
Of course, I’d like to know your thoughts & let us know what you think might be missing.
Other predictions:
Best Cinematography
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Original Screenplay (Monday)
Best Adapted Screenplay (Monday)
Best Actor (Tuesday)
Best Actress (Wednesday)
Best Director (Thursday)
Best Film (Friday)