2011 Oscar Predictions: Best Actor

There’s definitely an air of familiarity with the best actor predictions you’ll find below – I get buzzing on future film performances based on the already established filmography, but if I use this year’s Oscar winner for Best Actor, then I should expect the unexpected. Among the long shots, we find a pair of Colin Farrell films that are tagged for award season kudos, but between London Boulevard where the actor takes on Mitchel, an ex-con’s attempt at a normal life, and The Way Back where he portrays Valka with blisters, I prefer the chances of the Weir film. Colin Firth for The King’s Speech where he plays King George VI with a lisp could raise some eyebrows. More perfs in the comedy realm we find Jake Gyllenhaal’s character in Love and Other Drugs where he plays Jamie Reidy the pharmaceutical business’ Jerry Maguire. Mel Gibson’s The Beaver will get talked a lot – he portrays a depressed man who finds solace in wearing a beaver hand-puppet. Joseph Gordon-Levitt’s bit might get some laughs and draw some tears for I’m With Cancer – a first person account of a young man with cancer. Finally, I wonder if Matt Damon’s blue-collar American in Hereafter is worth considering when you think of the perfs that have won under the classical direction of Eastwood.

The Dark Horse Picks:

James Franco for 127 Hours
Comments: Fox Searchlight will need to lobby hard at the very end of the year with this number – I’ve heard that some portions of James Franco’s performance will be without dialogue – understandably since the real Aron Ralston was stuck underneath a bolder for the better part of a week. This would be a first nom for the actor.

Jim Broadbent for Another Year
Comments: Leigh brings out the best in his actors. This could be the case for Broadbent.

Jeff Bridges for True Grit
Comments: Won for Crazy Heart, and John Wayne already won for this character. I doubt whether he’ll win again, nomination though is a possibility.

Mark Wahlberg for The Fighter
Comments: The Supporting Actor nomination for The Departed still hasn’t repaired the mistake the Academy made for not nominating him for Boogie Nights. Payback time may come with this character, which could be fitting as I’ve picked Bale as my Best Supporting Actor pick for The Fighter. Wahlberg plays ‘Irish’ Mickey Ward.

Stephen Dorff for Somewhere
Comments: Hollywood loves its down and out characters, Dorff’s Johnny Marco – an unfit celeb father fits that bill. For top 5 recognition he’ll have a huge hill to climb – but seeing that for a decade he worked on direct to DVD type films, this is a story that many would root for.

Brad Pitt for The Tree of Life
Comments: Nominated twice before, Pitt unfortunately shares the lead with the film’s narrator Sean Penn – but at this point we still don’t know how much weight his role carries. Recent reports mention the family man has a nasty side to him.

The Five Noms:

George Clooney for The American
Comments: Winner for Best Supporting with Syriana, and nominated for Best Actor Michael Clayton and Up in the Air, if Focus Features fails to support this rogue character, a lone wolf who constantly needs to look behind his back, then we could see Fox Searchlight come in at the last minute with The Descendants. 

Ryan Gosling for Blue Valentine
Comments: Previously nominated for Best Actor for another “indie” film (Half Nelson), this gut wrenching performance will be celebrated and receive tons of accolades (Gothams, Indie Sprits), but the Weinsteins will need to support the film for this blue collar character to be fully embraced by voters. 

Sean Penn for Fair Game
Comments: Having won on 2 out of 5 tries ensures that Penn will receive a nod, not a win for portraying U.S ambassador Joseph Wilson. 

Robert Duvall for Get Low
Comments: While the film failed to impress me, critics at TIFF wrote Oscar all over this performance. I could see SPC work hard to maintain that story, but in a charged year it’ll need more than a sympathy vote, but strong critical support to maintain that buzz. Nominated six times before in both categories, his only win was for 1983’s Tender Mercies.

Johnny Depp for The Rum Diary
Comments: 3 noms and zero wins, Depp might follow the Bridges route and get a life’s work nomination, which would be fitting since there is a positive to be found in the fact that this project languished on for so many years – perhaps it allowed Depp to mentally workshop a tribute to his friend who created the character. Hunter S. Thompson’s Paul Kemp should be a memorable character.

As usual, drop us a line below. Other predictions:

Best Cinematography
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Original Screenplay
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Actor
Best Actress (Wednesday)
Best Director (Thursday)
Best Film (Friday)