2011 Oscar Predictions: Best Actress

The Long Shots:

Among those with the toughest odds against them, I’m thinking that Natalie Portman‘s character in Black Swan will have to leave a more long-lasting impression than her punk, stripper role in Closer, for which she received her only nom. Freida Pinto seems to be getting some early mentions for Miral, but I think we’ll have to wait for her development over the next couple of years before considering her statuette-worthy and the same can be said for True Grit‘s Hailee Steinfeld who’ll be someone to look out for if the Coens bros.’ hunch is correct. I had Bryce Dallas Howard “listed” as supporting actress for Hereafter, but some are saying this is her first “lead” role – I’ll wait until Cecile De France’s role is further detailed before changing this perception. Speaking of redheads, The Tree of Life‘s Jessica Chastain might receive some cred, but in the scheme of things, the mistreated spouse role that Kirsten Dunst portrays in All Good Things probably one ups her. Carey Mulligan was just nominated this year, not sure how Never Let Me Go will pan out. Restless could work wonders for Mia Wasikowska and her The Kids Are All Right co-star Annette Bening could receive further praise as the held out the household somewhat living in the dark, but I think she has a better shot with a role I’ve mentioned below.

The Dark Horse Picks:

Imelda Staunton for Another Year
If Jim Broadbent delivers the goods and if Mike Leigh offers Staunton the type of career defining role she was offered in Vera Drake, then I’d be foolish to not include her in the top five. I’m thinking close but no cigar. 

Robin Wright for The Conspirator
If Redford finds his grove back and gives us a Quiz Show and not Lions for Lambs, then I’d put a small wager on Wright’s take on Mary Surratt as the actress has yet to be nominated for Oscar.

Julia Roberts for Eat, Pray, Love 
An actress that already has legions of fans plays the lead in a book to film project that already has a lock on the box office. Even if she is America’s girl, it’ll be hard to discount her in the skin of Elizabeth Gilbert. 

Anne Hathaway for Love and Other Drugs
I’m thinking that the business and pleasure mix that was offered in Up in the Air is a characteristic than many cinephiles liked. Perhaps Hathaway’s Maggie Murdock character embodies some of these characteristics which certainly won’t bother voters, but when measured up against Michelle Williams’s drama romance, it’ll be harder for this role to find a spot as well.

Sally Hawkins for Made in Dagenham
In Nigel Cole’s originally titled We Want Sex, Hawkins fiery character of Rita is the film’s battle cry heroine against sexual discrimination in the work place circa 1968. This will need a boost on the film circuit and get picked up in time for a popularity run.

Annette Benning for Mother and Child 
If for some reason all of Helen Mirren’s roles cancel each other out, then Bening will be nominated for her role as a damaged individual who finally gets into the clear only to suffer from one last emotional wallop. Problem is the film is being released in May and will need to remain in people’s consciousness for a good 10 months. SPC have some work to do.

The Five Noms

Hilary Swank for Betty Anne Waters
Comments: Winner for Boys Don’t Cry and Million Dollar Baby, if Fox Searchlight still has that awful taste in their mouth from the whole Amelia experience, then we might be headed towards Swank’s triple crown in onscreen underdogs.

Michelle Williams for Blue Valentine
Comments: Sure there are portions where Williams is all lovey dovey with Ryan Gosling, but these good looking actors are totally believable as blue collar personalities who both clash and nurture one another.

Naomi Watts for Fair Game
Comments: Oscar night’s second Best Actor-Actress pairing could include Naomi Watts and Penn. If voters don’t want to gush all over Swank again, I think they’ll go out of their way to add a first golden statue to Watts’ mantle for her portrayal of CIA agent Valerie Plame.

Nicole Kidman for Rabbit Hole
Comments: If Nicole and Naomi both get a nom, then the headlines will call this a tussle between friends, a fight card from Australia. If both Aaron Eckhart and Dianne Wiest are on cue, then most likely receive a nomination, but for a win she’ll have to play a grieving mother better than Gainsbourg did in Antichrist and be in the zone, essentially giving a more convincing perf than the one time she won Oscar (The Hours).

Helen Mirren for ??????
Comments: Mirren has four film roles coming out this year, I’m anticipating all four films: Love Ranch, The Tempest, The Debt and Brighton Rock, but I think she’ll collect a nom for her bit in The Tempest.