2012 Cannes Film Festival Predictions: Pablo Larrain’s No

Gist: Starring Gael Garcia Bernal, this is inspired in part by “Referendum,” an unpublished play by Antonio Skarmeta and based on true events, No takes place before the 1988 referendum staged by Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet to gain a further eight-year term in office. Adopting a brilliantly upbeat advertising campaign, the “No” campaign won the plebiscite, ousting Pinochet.

Prediction: Earlier in the year we thought this would be going to Venice/TIFF, and to a degree we think that Cannes might not want to rehash some of the same Pinochet politics we found in Pablo Larrain’s breakout, Directors’ Fortnight 2008 selected film, Tony Manero. Will the lighter tone be an obstacle for a film’s showing? If it isn’t then perhaps the helmer might climb up a section into the Un Certain Regard.