This awards season has been filled with plenty of drama and unexpected twists, when one film pulled ahead of the pack, the narrative would switch-up, but in the end—just three weekends ago—the Palme d’Or winner Anora solidified its position as the frontrunner to take home the big daddy prize – so it would be a total shocker if Sean Baker‘s film doesn’t take gold tonight at the 97th Academy Awards. Minus the three short film categories, we looked into who will and who should win in all twenty feature film brackets.
Best Picture
“Anora” (Neon) WILL WIN
“The Brutalist” (A24) SHOULD WIN
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics)
“Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM Studios)
“The Substance” (Mubi)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Comment: It would have been nice to see a Palme d’Or winner measure up against a Golden Lion winner, but in the case of The Brutalist, and this is the telling part of the equation, even the jury folks under the leadership of Isabelle Huppert on the Lido were split on the film – Brady Corbet would win Best Director losing the top prize to a baffling choice in Pedro Almodóvar’s film. Anora has been the fan favorite for a long time now, and with the recent clean sweep of the Critics Choice, Indie Spirits, Producers Guild and Directors Guild honors this is almost a sure bet.
Best Director
Jacques Audiard “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Sean Baker “Anora” (Neon) WILL WIN
Brady Corbet “The Brutalist” (A24) SHOULD WIN
Coralie Fargeat “The Substance” (Mubi)
James Mangold “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Comment: As we know, Brady Corbet won the Golden Globes for Best Picture and Director but the voting pool is insignificant to that of the Academy’s. After all, this is a popularity contest and the voting members will go for the more likeable film.
Best Actor
Adrien Brody “The Brutalist” (A24) WILL WIN / SHOULD WIN
Timothée Chalamet “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Colman Domingo “Sing Sing” (A24)
Ralph Fiennes “Conclave” (Focus Features)
Sebastian Stan “The Apprentice” (Briarcliff Entertainment)
Comment: Well before Cannes, Ralph Fiennes felt the frontrunner and it was fun to see Timothée Chalamet alter the win-streak narrative belonging to Adrien Brody with a surprise SAG win, but Adrien Brody will be part of the two-peat club.
Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo “Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Karla Sofía Gascón “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Mikey Madison “Anora” (Neon)
Demi Moore “The Substance” (Mubi)
Fernanda Torres “I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics) WILL WIN / SHOULD WIN
Comment: When the nominations were announced and I’m Still Here landed not one, but three nominations it meant that the machine behind a Venice Film Festival winner Fernanda Torres push was a real deal. While Demi Moore have been making inroads in this category and the industry vet never having been taken seriously spin a la The Substance does indeed work in her favor, we feel that the Fernanda Montenegro connection narrative might have more traction. This is my dark horse pick of the evening.
Best Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov “Anora” (Neon)
Kieran Culkin “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures) WILL WIN
Edward Norton “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Guy Pearce “The Brutalist” (A24)
Jeremy Strong “The Apprentice” (Briarcliff Entertainment) SHOULD WIN
Comment: Kieran Culkin has won every single award for this specific category. It’s a slam dunk, no-brainer.
Best Supporting Actress
Monica Barbaro “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Ariana Grande “Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Felicity Jones “The Brutalist” (A24)
Isabella Rossellini “Conclave” (Focus Features)
Zoe Saldaña “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) WILL WIN / SHOULD WIN
Comment: Zoe Saldaña slices and dices in her fierce Best Actress worthy performance – in wanting to play their cards right, Netflix ultimately will have secured a win for Emilia Pérez in this category.
Best Original Screenplay
“Anora” (Neon) Sean Baker WILL WIN
“The Brutalist” (A24) Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold SHOULD WIN
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures) Jesse Eisenberg
“September 5” (Paramount Pictures) Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum, Alex David
“The Substance” (Mubi) Coralie Fargeat
Comment: If Anora secures this award then we’ll have the confirmation that it’ll win the evening’s top two other prizes. Word on the street, A Real Pain has a legit shot.
Best Adapted Screenplay
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures) Jay Cocks, James Mangold
“Conclave” (Focus Features) Peter Straughan WILL WIN
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) Jacques Audiard
“Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM Studios) RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes SHOULD WIN
“Sing Sing” (A24) Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield
Comment: If Conclave truly deserves a win, its certainly in this category. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy scribe Peter Straughan made this drama a thriller on the page turner.
Best Animated Feature
“Flow” (Janus Films/Sideshow) WILL WIN / SHOULD WIN
“Inside Out 2” (Pixar)
“Memoir of a Snail” (IFC Films)
“Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl” (Netflix)
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)
Comment: The bookmakers in Vegas likely have The Wild Robot in the lead here, but we feel that the David vs. Goliath narrative will extend here giving Flow the win. Go Latvia!
Best Production Design
“The Brutalist” (A24) SHOULD WIN
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) WILL WIN
Comment: Wicked has dominated this category in the other galas, we hope we are wrong with this guess.
Best Cinematography
“The Brutalist” (A24) WILL WIN / SHOULD WIN
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Maria” (Netflix)
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
Comment: Awards season has been loving the made for under 10M narrative but let’s be honest: Brady Corbet and Lol Crawley breathing life into a format (VistaVision) that has collected cobwebs for decades now made for a genuinely impressive oeuvre to look at.
Best Costume Design
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) WILL WIN / SHOULD WIN
Comment: It landed so many nominations and if there is one category is should win in its here.
Best Film Editing
“Anora” (Neon)
“The Brutalist” (A24)
“Conclave” (Focus Features) WILL WIN
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) SHOULD WIN
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Comment: Engaging for its pistol-whip moving “street” musical camera aesthetics, much of this film’s energy has a lot to do the edit but I think Conclave is the more polished film of the five noms.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
“A Different Man” (A24)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
“The Substance” (Mubi) WILL WIN / SHOULD WIN
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Comment: The grotesque maiming of the female body will be handsomely rewarded here.
Best Sound
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) WILL WIN / SHOULD WIN
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)
Comment: For anyone who saw this theatrically, Dune: Part Two aurally felt like an epic experience.
Best Visual Effects
“Alien: Romulus” (20th Century Studios)
“Better Man” (Paramount Pictures)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) WILL WIN / SHOULD WIN
“Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” (20th Century Studios)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Comment: Denis Villeneuve created an epic auteur blockbuster. It deserves to be celebrated.
Best Original Score
“The Brutalist” (A24) WILL WIN / SHOULD WIN
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)
Comment: If I collected vinyl, I’d be playing this in the background when autumn sets in. Daniel Blumberg owns this category.
Best Original Song
“Never Too Late” from “Elton John: Never Too Late” (Walt Disney Pictures)
“El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) WILL WIN / SHOULD WIN
“Mi Camino” from “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight” (Netflix)
“Like a Bird” from “Sing Sing” (A24)
Comment: It’s Emilia Pérez’s most catchiest moment of the film and it underlines Zoe Saldaña’s incredible performance.
Best Documentary Feature
“Black Box Diaries” (MTV Documentary Films)
“No Other Land” (No U.S. Distribution) WILL WIN / SHOULD WIN
“Porcelain War” (Picturehouse)
“Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat” (Kino Lorber)
“Sugarcane” (National Geographic Documentary Films)
Comment: The Berlinale preemed No Other Land is going up against four Sundance premiered docus and we like the narrative of the film without distribution but the fact that this has won every major docu award since September means this will likely be the winner – plus the subject matter is of the moment and I believe a lot of voters will want to see it being championed on a world stage.
Best International Feature
“Emilia Pérez” from France (Netflix) WILL WIN / SHOULD WIN
“Flow” from Latvia (Janus Films/Sideshow)
“The Girl with the Needle” from Denmark (Mubi)
“I’m Still Here” from Brazil (Sony Pictures Classics)
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig” from Germany (Neon)
Comment: I’m cheering for an upset a la I’m Still Here kind, but I don’t see how Emilia Pérez won’t win the category it has been destined to win since it claimed a pair of prizes on the Croisette and cemented its status as France’s pick.
