2011 Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

I don’t think this is as much of a crap-shoot than the Best Supporting Actresses category, but I had difficulties in dwindling down, not my top five noms, but separating my six dark horse selections from the clutter. I’ll try to be as coherent as possible in outlining those that got the cut. Again, the Mike Leigh and Woody Allen films are headaches, without any character details its hard to put names on the list – I’m more tempted on the leads than the supporting actors. One name that was mentioned at TIFF and which I didn’t think was much of a stretch from his previous offbeat character roles was Bill Murray’s bit in Get Low. I’m cutting out Aaron Eckhart’s third wheel character from The Rum Diary, because he has a more heavier set role in Rabbit Hole.

I was thinking that the supporting male Mossad agents in The Debt might also get some attention, but my wild card pick is the sympathetic, road-tripper wing-man that Zach Galifianakis plays in Due Date. Here are my previously mentioned noms for Best Cinematography and Best Supporting Actress (tomorrow we begin with the screenplays) and to compare lists, check out IndieWIRE’s Peter Knegt’s well thought-out Oscar picks. Once again my vote on who I think will win Best Supporting Actor is in the picture above. 

Five Noms:

Sam Riley for Brighton Rock
Comments: Carey Mulligan Andrea Riseborough’s character witnesses a murder, but marries the person who pulled the trigger. That triggerman is going to receive the BAFTA, but it’ll be a stroke of luck if this unbought picture does put Riley in the noms circle. 

Christian Bale for The Fighter
Comment: The character of Dickie Eklund should remind voters that when Bale commits to a role, he really does take it one step further than the rest. Unofficial pics (scroll down the page) show how much weight he lost for a role that originally had Matt Damon and then Brad Pitt attached. Ecklund, fought Sugar Ray Leonard and then fought drug addiction. Then he helped train his brother to an audience friendly ending. His level of commitment should bring him not only his first nom, but his first win – plus Oscar loves its boxers: Rocky, Jake LaMotta, Hilary Swank.

Aaron Eckhart for Rabbit Hole
Comments: Eckhart plays Howie Corbett, one half of grieving family alongside Nicole Kidman. It would be nice to see the actor receive his first nomination – I still remember him from my screening of In the Company of Men. The nerdcore will make this a Harvey Dent vs. Bruce Wayne fight card on Oscar night.

Josh Brolin for True Grit
Comments: The hard working Brolin played the “villain” in Milk (if you want to call him that) and received his first ever nom, he should receive a second supporting nod as the character who kills a 14 year-old girl’s father – and the film industry loves its bad guys.

Ed Harris for The Way Back
Comments: Co-stars Mark Strong and Jim Sturgess have legit shots as well, but Harris’ Mr.Smith is the more likely of the three to receive the attention – perhaps its because of the actor’s supporting perfs noms for Apollo 13, The Truman Show, The Hours and the lead nod for Pollock. 

Dark horse picks:

Christopher Plummer for Beginners
Comments: Mike Mills’ film is flying under the radar, but sometime this year people will release that Plummer, who received his first nom this year for The Last Station, may pull off a nom for this character who might share some of the same qualities as Ian McKellen in Gods and Monsters. The elder father delivers a double whammy to his son (Ewan McGregor).

Chris Cooper for The Company Men
Comments: Out of all the proud men in this film, the one that didn’t fall on deaf ears was Cooper’s character – it plays less favorably than his peers, but is the some emblematic face of the economic reality for the white collar crowd.

Geoffrey Rush for The King’s Speech
Comments: There are other supporting male leads in the film, but if Rush goes off the deep end and gives us a memorable character then this might be one more nom that he can add to his three others: Shakespeare in Love, Quills and one win for Shine.

Justin Timberlake for The Social Network
Comments: It’s so easy to dismiss Timberlake as a pop singer flirting with an acting career, but this guy is a natural. I’m really curious to see what Fincher did with this film and how he used the dramatic skill-set that we first saw in Alpha Dog.

Jon Hamm for The Town
Comment: Not sure why I’m I’m thinking highly of Ben Affleck’s film, but I think he role that Hamm has got: one third of a bizarre love triangle and an FBI agent after a criminal gang. This might do a lot for his non-television career.

Sean Penn for The Tree of Life
Comments: I think his part as the “adult Jack” will be that of the film’s unseen narrator. Despite narrating several doc films, it’ll take some eloquent spoken, deep wording to pull of a nom. I haven’t checked back in the Academy Award’s history – but I think this would be a first. Penn has five noms, 2 wins but never participated in the Supporting category.

Of course, I’d like to know your thoughts & let us know what you think might be missing.