2012 Sundance Film Festival: 80 Predictions Recap

Sometime late this month (or at the beginning of the month of December) the Sundance Film Festival will start unveiling the line-up for their 2012 edition. In an effort to give our readers a heads up on what we’ll most likely be seeing at the fest, I’ve put together yet another predictions list. Caution: I cast a wide circle with a total of 80 predix so I’m bound to get some wrong, but as I’ve proven in prior years, I’m spot on with at least half the titles you’ll find here.

One of the most common questions I receive is: how do I know what’ll be at the fest and where do I get my information? The answer: I’ve been going there seven years straight, been privileged to share professional relationships with those in the indie and foreign film sphere, but unless you’re one of the programmers led by John Cooper, then no one really can say what’ll be at the fest — although. I’ve noticed some trends and observations about the potential class of 2012 – which I make a point of highlighting below and for the several Sundance hopefuls, I’d like to share one of the better articles (written by Yelling to the Sky‘s Victoria Mahoney) about the process & how being rejected isn’t a death sentence. Here’s our 80 Sundance Film Festival predictions for 2012.

1. The emergence of the Park City indie film star: Jess Weixler
A starring role in urban legend indie horror comedy back in 2007 is a fairly accurate case study for how one uses the Park City magic and then parlays it into a career as an indie starlet. Jess Weixler’s memorable perf as both a victim/victimizer in Teeth probably landed her tons of cheap horror scripts to consider, but she would choose a course that would allow for her dramatic range to be displayed with Peter and Vandy (Sundance 2009) and this year’s The Lie (Sundance 2011). No surprise that she has lined-up so many potential Park City items for 2012: she has Ted Koland’s Lumpy, Kevin Patrick Connors’ The Normals and pictured in our exclusive first look below, Jay Gammill’s Free Samples (alongside Jesse Eisenberg) as possible Sundance 2012 candidates.

2. The resurgence of the Park City indie film star: Jena Malone
With up to four indie film roles (Bradley Rust Gray’s Jack and Diane, Brian Savelson’s In Our Nature, M. Blash’s The Wait and So Yong Kim’s For Ellen with another Park City stalwart in Paul Dano – see pic below) that we think could easily be programmed at the fest, 2012 could be the year where we celebrate an actress who arguably stills flies under the radar and this despite being an integral part of the fest with leading, supporting and bit roles in Donnie Darko (2001), The Dangerous Lives of Altar Boys (2002), The United States of Leland (2003), Saved! (2004), The Go-Getter (2007) and The Messenger (2009).

3. The Sundance mainstay: John Hawkes
Easily part of a rare breed of actors (the Giamattis, the Seymour-Hoffmans, the Michael Shannons and the James Francos) where when they do a Sundance selected indie you definitely take notice, it was Miranda July’s Me and You and Everyone We Know back in 2005 that launched his career and when not working on the studio realm of projects, we’re reminded of just how much a range this guy has I cite his turns as Teardrop in Debra Granik’s Winter’s Bone and lst year’s Higher Ground and obviously Martha Marcy May Marlene.
This year the fest could easily showcase his goods in Olivia Silver’s Arcadia, Julia Dyer’s The Playroom and/or Ben Lewin’s The Surrogate. If you’re looking for the female equivalent: Look no further than Melissa Leo.

4. Sundance Accepted Shorts becoming Sundance Accepted Features
We all know that the Sundance Film Festival gets behind first-time filmmakers and apart from their famous labs, there is no farther prove of this support than when the fest supports a filmmaker who presented a short film and then years later support their feature film. There are countless examples of this every year, but what I consider even more of a commitment, is when the filmmaker expands a short film idea that was introduced at Sundance and then has it turned into and supported as a feature length item. I think back to examples such as Ryan Fleck’s Half Nelson and more recently Adam Salky’s Dare, Elgin James’ Little Birds and Dee Rees’ Pariah. This year we profiled a trio of helmers that could be a part of this folklore: Coley Sohn’s Boutonniere (2009) into Sassy Pants, Olivia Silver’s Little Canyon (2008) into Arcadia and finally Nicholas McCarthy’ The Pact (2011) into a feature going by the same name.

5. Mumblecore: An extended family
While Mumblecore’s core aesthetics, tone and naturalism hasn’t changed, the addition of known actors in the mix, the exploration of the form in different genres, some examples of major studio involvement and a divergence from the regular white middle class concerns means there are some meaty items out there for the 2012 campaign. While SXSW might have been the lieu of where the U.S indie movement broke out, but Sundance is reaping the benefits. My predictions list includes new items from the Duplass, Shelton and Aselton and some new names that’ll be added to the family.

6. 70’s New Hollywood Influence
In reading the many synopsis and project descriptions in this list of 80, I’ve noted that several young indie filmmakers of today are conceiving their film ideas with the help and influence from the trove of treasured films from the 70’s. We’re talking Altman, Coppola and films such as Two Lane Blacktop, The Last Picture Show, Deliverance and Five Easy Pieces which I think would make a guy like Robert Redford somewhat proud.

7. NYC: An indie friendly backdrop
I’d say at least one out of every three films mentioned on this list were conceived, shot in and/or shot with a New York City backdrop in mind. In the five boroughs lies a microcosm that represents cultural and social issues via the POV of ordinary people, which indie films make into extraordinary. Sure from production value standpoint it’s hard to beat this city, but I still find it somewhat remarkable that this mecca can manage to continually renew itself in cinema via new storylines worth telling. Sundance is big on such films and in my predictions list there are too many to name, but we can expect the same frequency in the upcoming announcements. 

8. Helping Hand: Film Funds and Public
There are the lucky few that prior to the festival ride get to participate in the Sundance experience with the Labs and Institute funds (there’ll be several titles I’ve included on the list that should be named to the fest in the upcoming weeks). I also mentioned several projects that had generous grants/help from endeavours from the Cinereach and the IFP folks, but what I’m most impressed by is the number of films items that will show up at the fest that raised some serious coin via Kickstarter and IndieGoGo.
What might have been once considered a trend for no-name, no-budgets is now a mainstay in the business, being used by well-known indie folk and over the years has incrementally become a major source for indie filmmakers. In my predictions list we’ve got close to a dozen projects that would have benefitted from such crowd funding sites and might get the chance to showcase in Park City.