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Oscar Crystal Ball: Who Should and Who Will Win

I don’t think the crystal ball is that clouded this year…but the Oscar pools do end up getting a jolt. My picks aren’t off the charts (only minor gamble is in the Best Actress category) – I’m thinking that the major PR campaign by Marion will reap the benefits. Below you’ll find all the categories – personal opinion and predictions will be followed by Oscar winner commentary in tonite’s blog…ENJOY!

BEST
PICTURE

       

“Atonement” (Focus Features) A Working Title Production Tim Bevan,
Eric Fellner and Paul Webster, Producers
“Juno” (Fox Searchlight) A
Dancing Elk Pictures, LLC Production Lianne Halfon, Mason Novick and Russell
Smith, Producers
“Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.) A Clayton
Productions, LLC Production Sydney Pollack, Jennifer Fox and Kerry Orent,
Producers
“No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount
Vantage) A Scott Rudin/Mike Zoss Production Scott Rudin, Ethan Coen and
Joel Coen, Producers
“There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and
Miramax) A JoAnne Sellar/Ghoulardi Film Company Production JoAnne Sellar,
Paul Thomas Anderson and Daniel Lupi, Producers

Who Will Win: “No Country for Old Men”
Who Should Win: “There Will Be Blood”
Who Won:

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING
ROLE

       

George Clooney in “Michael Clayton” (Warner
Bros.)
Daniel Day-Lewis in “There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage
and Miramax)
Johnny Depp in “Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet
Street” (DreamWorks and Warner Bros.,
Distributed by
DreamWorks/Paramount)
Tommy Lee Jones in “In the Valley of Elah”
(Warner Independent)
Viggo Mortensen in “Eastern Promises” (Focus
Features)

Who Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis in “There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage
and Miramax)
Who Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis in “There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage
and Miramax)
Who Won:

       

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING
ROLE

Casey Affleck in “The Assassination of Jesse James by
the Coward Robert Ford” (Warner Bros.)
Javier Bardem in “No Country
for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage)
Hal Holbrook in “Into the
Wild” (Paramount Vantage and River Road Entertainment)
Philip Seymour
Hoffman
in “Charlie Wilson’s War” (Universal)
Tom Wilkinson in
“Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.)

Who Will Win: Javier Bardem in “No Country
for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage)
Who Should Win: Javier Bardem in “No Country
for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage)
Who Won:

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING
ROLE

       

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING
ROLE

Cate Blanchett in “Elizabeth: The Golden Age”
(Universal)
Julie Christie in “Away from Her” (Lionsgate)
Marion
Cotillard
in “La Vie en Rose” (Picturehouse)
Laura Linney in “The
Savages” (Fox Searchlight)
Ellen Page in “Juno” (Fox Searchlight)

Who Will Win: Marion
Cotillard
in “La Vie en Rose” (Picturehouse)
Who Should Win: Marion
Cotillard
in “La Vie en Rose” (Picturehouse)
Who Won:

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING
ROLE

       

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING
ROLE

Cate Blanchett in “I’m Not There” (The Weinstein
Company)
Ruby Dee in “American Gangster” (Universal)
Saoirse
Ronan
in “Atonement” (Focus Features)
Amy Ryan in “Gone Baby Gone”
(Miramax)
Tilda Swinton in “Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.)

Who Will Win: Cate Blanchett in “I’m Not There” (The Weinstein
Company)
Who Should Win: Cate Blanchett in “I’m Not There” (The Weinstein
Company)
Who Won:

DIRECTOR

         

Paul Thomas
Anderson
– “There Will Be Blood”
Ethan Coen & Joel Coen – “No
Country For Old Men”
Tony Gilroy – “Michael Clayton”
Jason
Reitman
– “Juno”
Julian Schnabel – “The Diving Bell And The
Butterfly”

Who Will Win: Ethan Coen & Joel Coen – “No
Country For Old Men”
Who Should Win: Paul Thomas
Anderson
– “There Will Be Blood”
Who Won:

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

       

Brad
Bird
– “Ratatouille”
Diablo Cody – “Juno”
Tony Gilroy
“Michael Clayton”
Tamara Jenkins – “The Savages”
Nancy
Oliver
– “Lars and the Real Girl”

Who Will Win: Diablo Cody – “Juno”
Who Should Win: Tony Gilroy
“Michael Clayton”
Who Won:

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

       

Paul
Thomas Anderson
– “There Will Be Blood”
Ethan & Joel Coen
“No Country for Old Men”
Christopher Hampton
“Atonement”
Ronald Harwood – “The Diving Bell and the
Butterfly”
Sarah Polley – “Away from Her”

Who Will Win: Ethan & Joel Coen
“No Country for Old Men”
Who Should Win: Ethan & Joel Coen
“No Country for Old Men”
Who Won:

ANIMATED
FEATURE

       

“Persepolis” – (Sony Pictures Classics) Marjane
Satrapi and Vincent Paronnaud
“Ratatouille” – (Pixar; Walt Disney
Studios Motion Pictures Distribution) Brad Bird
“Surf’s Up” – (Sony
Pictures Releasing) Ash Brannon and Chris Buck

Who Will Win: “Ratatouille” – (Pixar; Walt Disney
Studios Motion Pictures Distribution) Brad Bird
Who Should Win: “Persepolis” – (Sony Pictures Classics) Marjane
Satrapi and Vincent Paronnaud
Who Won:

FOREIGN LANGUAGE
FILM

       

“Beaufort” – Israel
“The Counterfeiters”
Austria
“Katyn,” – Poland
“Mongol”
Kazakhstan
“12” – Russia

Who Will Win: “The Counterfeiters”
Austria
Who Should Win: “The Counterfeiters”
Austria
Who Won:

ART DIRECTION

       

“American
Gangster”
(Universal) Art Direction: Arthur Max; Set Decoration: Beth A.
Rubino
“Atonement” (Focus Features) Art Direction: Sarah Greenwood;
Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
“The Golden Compass” (New Line in
association with Ingenious Film Partners) Art Direction: Dennis Gassner; Set
Decoration: Anna Pinnock
“Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet
Street”
(DreamWorks and Warner Bros., Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount)
Art Direction: Dante Ferretti; Set Decoration: Francesca Lo Schiavo
“There
Will Be Blood”
(Paramount Vantage and Miramax) Art Direction: Jack Fisk; Set
Decoration: Jim Erickson

Who Will Win: “Atonement” (Focus Features) Art Direction: Sarah Greenwood;
Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
Who Should Win: “There
Will Be Blood”
(Paramount Vantage and Miramax) Art Direction: Jack Fisk; Set
Decoration: Jim Erickson
Who Won:

CINEMATOGRAPHY

       

“The
Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford”
(Warner Bros.) Roger
Deakins
“Atonement” (Focus Features) Seamus McGarvey
“The
Diving Bell and the Butterfly”
(Miramax/Pathé Renn) Janusz
Kaminski
“No Country for Old Men” (Miramax and Paramount Vantage)
Roger Deakins
“There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax)
Robert Elswit

Who Will Win: “There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax)
Robert Elswit
Who Should Win: “There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax)
Robert Elswit
Who Won:

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

       

“No
End in Sight”
(Magnolia Pictures) A Representational Pictures Production;
Charles Ferguson and Audrey Marrs
“Operation Homecoming: Writing the
Wartime Experience”
(The Documentary Group) A Documentary Group Production;
Richard E. Robbins
“Sicko” (Lionsgate and The Weinstein Company) A Dog
Eat Dog Films Production; Michael Moore and Meghan O’Hara
“Taxi to the
Dark Side”
(THINKFilm) An X-Ray Production; Alex Gibney and Eva
Orner
“War/Dance” (THINKFilm) A Shine Global and Fine Films Production

Who Will Win: “No
End in Sight”

Who Should Win: “No
End in Sight”

Who Won:

ANIMATED SHORT FILM
“I
Met the Walrus”
A Kids & Explosions Production; Josh
Raskin
“Madame Tutli-Putli” (National Film Board of Canada) A National
Film Board of Canada Production; Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski
“Même
Les Pigeons Vont au Paradis (Even Pigeons Go to Heaven)”
(Premium Films) A
BUF Compagnie Production; Samuel Tourneux and Simon Vanesse
“My Love (Moya
Lyubov)”
(Channel One Russia) A Dago-Film Studio, Channel One Russia and
Dentsu Tec Production; Alexander Petrov
“Peter & the Wolf” (BreakThru Films) A BreakThru Films/Se-ma-for Studios Production

Who Will Win: “Madame Tutli-Putli”
Who Should Win: You Tell Me
Who Won:

LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM
“At Night” A Zentropa Entertainments 10 Production;
Christian E. Christiansen and Louise Vesth
“Il Supplente (The
Substitute)”
(Sky Cinema Italia) A Frame by Frame Italia Production; Andrea
Jublin
“Le Mozart des Pickpockets (The Mozart of Pickpockets)” (Premium Films) A Karé Production; Philippe Pollet-Villard
“Tanghi
Argentini”
(Premium Films) An Another Dimension of an Idea Production; Guido
Thys and Anja Daelemans
“The Tonto Woman” A Knucklehead, Little Mo and
Rose Hackney Barber Production; Daniel Barber and Matthew Brown

Who Will Win: “Tanghi
Argentini”

Who Should Win: You Tell Me
Who Won:

VISUAL EFFECTS

     

“The
Golden Compass”
(New Line in association with Ingenious Film Partners)
Michael Fink, Bill Westenhofer, Ben Morris and Trevor Wood
“Pirates of the
Caribbean: At World’s End”
(Walt Disney) John Knoll, Hal Hickel, Charles
Gibson and John Frazier
“Transformers” (DreamWorks and Paramount in
association with Hasbro) Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Russell Earl and John
Frazier

Who Will Win: “Pirates of the
Caribbean: At World’s End”

Who Should Win:“Transformers”
Who Won:

COSTUME DESIGN

       

“Across
the Universe”
(Sony Pictures Releasing) Albert Wolsky
“Atonement” (Focus Features) Jacqueline Durran
“Elizabeth: The Golden Age” (Universal) Alexandra Byrne
“La Vie en Rose” (Picturehouse) Marit
Allen
“Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street” (DreamWorks and
Warner Bros., Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount)

Who Will Win: “Atonement” (Focus Features) Jacqueline Durran
Who Should Win: “Atonement” (Focus Features) Jacqueline Durran
Who Won:

DOCUMENTARY
SHORT

“Freeheld” A Lieutenant Films Production; Cynthia
Wade and Vanessa Roth
“La Corona (The Crown)” A Runaway Films and Vega
Films Production; Amanda Micheli and Isabel Vega
“Salim Baba” A Ropa
Vieja Films and Paradox Smoke Production; Tim Sternberg and Francisco
Bello
“Sari’s Mother” (Cinema Guild) A Daylight Factory Production;
James Longley

Who Will Win: “Sari’s Mother” (Cinema Guild) A Daylight Factory Production;
James Longley
Who Should Win: You Tell Me
Who Won:

FILM EDITING

       

“The Bourne
Ultimatum”
(Universal) Christopher Rouse
“The Diving Bell and the
Butterfly”
(Miramax/Pathé Renn) Juliette Welfling
“Into the Wild” (Paramount Vantage and River Road Entertainment) Jay Cassidy
“No Country
for Old Men”
(Miramax and Paramount Vantage) Roderick Jaynes
“There
Will Be Blood”
(Paramount Vantage and Miramax) Dylan Tichenor

Who Will Win: “No Country
for Old Men”
(Miramax and Paramount Vantage) Roderick Jaynes
Who Should Win: “The Bourne
Ultimatum”
(Universal) Christopher Rouse
Who Won:

SOUND MIXING

       

“The Bourne
Ultimatum”
(Universal) Scott Millan, David Parker and Kirk Francis
“No
Country for Old Men”
(Miramax and Paramount Vantage) Skip Lievsay, Craig
Berkey, Greg Orloff and Peter Kurland
“Ratatouille” (Walt Disney)
Randy Thom, Michael Semanick and Doc Kane
“3:10 to Yuma” (Lionsgate)
Paul Massey, David Giammarco and Jim Stuebe
“Transformers” (DreamWorks
and Paramount in association with Hasbro) Kevin O’Connell, Greg P. Russell and
Peter J. Devlin

Who Will Win: “The Bourne
Ultimatum”
(Universal) Scott Millan, David Parker and Kirk Francis
Who Should Win: “3:10 to Yuma” (Lionsgate)
Paul Massey, David Giammarco and Jim Stuebe
Who Won:

SOUND EDITING

       

“The Bourne
Ultimatum”
(Universal) Karen Baker Landers and Per Hallberg
“No
Country for Old Men”
(Miramax and Paramount Vantage) Skip
Lievsay
“Ratatouille” (Walt Disney) Randy Thom and Michael
Silvers
“There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax) Matthew
Wood
“Transformers” (DreamWorks and Paramount in association with
Hasbro) Ethan Van der Ryn and Mike Hopkins

Who Will Win: “The Bourne
Ultimatum”
(Universal) Karen Baker Landers and Per Hallberg
Who Should Win: “There Will Be Blood” (Paramount Vantage and Miramax) Matthew
Wood
Who Won:

ORIGINAL
SCORE

       

“Atonement” (Focus Features) Dario
Marianelli
“The Kite Runner” (DreamWorks, Sidney Kimmel Entertainment
and Participant Productions, Distributed by Paramount Classics) Alberto
Iglesias
“Michael Clayton” (Warner Bros.) James Newton
Howard
“Ratatouille” (Walt Disney) Michael Giacchino
“3:10 to
Yuma”
(Lionsgate) Marco Beltrami

Who Will Win: “Atonement” (Focus Features) Dario
Marianelli
Who Should Win: “Atonement” (Focus Features) Dario
Marianelli
Who Won:

ORIGINAL SONG

       

“Falling
Slowly”
from “Once” (Fox Searchlight) Music and Lyric by Glen Hansard
and Marketa Irglova
“Happy Working Song” from “Enchanted” (Walt
Disney) Music by Alan Menken; Lyric by Stephen Schwartz
“Raise It Up” from “August Rush” (Warner Bros.) Nominees to be determined
“So
Close”
from “Enchanted” (Walt Disney) Music by Alan Menken; Lyric by
Stephen Schwartz
“That’s How You Know” from “Enchanted” (Walt
Disney) Music by Alan Menken; Lyric by Stephen Schwartz

Who Will Win: “Falling
Slowly”
from “Once”
Who Should Win: “Falling
Slowly”
from “Once”
Who Won:

MAKEUP

        

“La Vie en
Rose”
(Picturehouse) Didier Lavergne and Jan Archibald
“Norbit” (DreamWorks, Distributed by Paramount) Rick Baker and Kazuhiro
Tsuji
“Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End” (Walt Disney) Ve
Neill and Martin Samuel

Who Will Win: “La Vie en
Rose”

Who Should Win: “La Vie en
Rose”

Who Won:

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Eric Lavallée is the founder, CEO, editor-in-chief, film journalist, and critic at IONCINEMA.com, established in 2000. A regular at Sundance, Cannes, and Venice, Eric holds a BFA in film studies from the Mel Hoppenheim School of Cinema. In 2013, he served on the narrative competition jury at the SXSW Film Festival. He was an associate producer on Mark Jackson’s "This Teacher" (2018 LA Film Festival, 2018 BFI London). In 2022, he was a New Flesh Juror for Best First Feature at the Fantasia International Film Festival. Current top films for 2023 include The Zone of Interest (Glazer), Inside the Yellow Cocoon Shell (Pham Thien An), Totem (Lila Avilés), La Chimera (Alice Rohrwacher), All Dirt Roads Taste of Salt (Raven Jackson).

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