YouBETcha! is back, this time for our Berlinale edition, where we guess the odds of the films most likely to pick up the converted top prize: The Golden Bear. We accurately predicted the film that had the best chances of winning Sundance – and Josephine happens to be one of the two films featured in the twenty-two competition film line-up that is not a world premiere. German-Turkish filmmaker İlker Çatak’s Yellow Letters starring Tansu Biçer and Özgü Namal is our top pick following his lauded Panorama section 2023 Berlinale sophomore feature The Teacher’s Lounge. Following couple Derya and Aziz moving to Aziz’s parents’ place in Istanbul after losing their jobs due to illegal state pressures the film promises to be a poignant mix of defiance, acceptance and morality when life is turned completely upside down. The set up seems similar to the boiling pot style narrative of his previously mentioned effort and should offer up a simmering anti-thriller that will go down well with the Wim Wenders-led Jury.
Two more films share the same odds as Yellow Letters, firstly the Sandra Hüller starring Rose from Austrian filmmaker Markus Schleinzer. Set in early 17th Century Germany a woman enters a village disguised as a man intending to keep her secret and become an integral part of the community. Rose continues Schleinzer’s use of one word name titles following his disturbing Cannes comp debut Michael and sophomore feature Angelo. His third obtains all the hallmarks of an award winner, shot in luscious black and white by cinematographer Gerald Kerkletz and with the star power of Hüller behind it keep tabs on this one. Finally, Ballast director Lance Hammer’s long awaited return eighteen years after he made a splash winning the Sundance US Dramatic Directing award and it also premiered in Berlin quickly after. Queen at Sea tells the story of a dementia ridden woman played by Berlinale favorite Juliette Binoche and her family’s struggle to adapt to their new reality. Sharing DNA with Haneke’s beloved Palme d’Or winner Amour from 2012 with supporting turns from Tom Courtenay and a potential gem uncovered in newcomer Noah Hunt Basden this should excel.
Coming in at number four with 8/1 odds is Turkish filmmaker Emin Alper’s Salvation (Kurtuluş). In a remote Turkish mountain village an exiled clans return sparks a decade old land feud. Mesut, the local leader’s brother, starts experiencing visions he believes to be divine warning thus challenging his brother’s leadership and causing a plethora of power struggles that all come to a dangerous head. Alper’s debut Beyond the Hill won the Calgari Film Prize at Berlinale in 2012, his follow up Frenzy then won the Special Jury Prize at Venice in 2015. His third feature Burning Days premiered in the Un Certain Regard in Cannes – Alper’s impressive A list film fest track record aside, this promises to be a tense and propulsive thriller.
Lastly with an outside chance at 9/1 is hybrid documentary Yo (Love is a Rebellious Bird) from filmmakers Anna Finch and Banker White. If Wenders & co. somehow don’t have a consensus by the time they get to the 22nd film offering then we might find elevated art a la Marwencol or The Mother of All Lies as an golden option. Finch creates a ⅓ scale replica of her late friend Yo’s house just big enough to fit inside complete with a puppet of Yo inside. The pair met and formed a strong friendship when Yo was 73 and Anna was 24.The filmmakers have made two well received documentaries for PBS’s P.O.V series in The Genius of Marian and Survivors. This foray into what appears to be a very personal and experimental project should mark a noted step up (or down) in both scale and interest. Reminder that docu films On the Adamant (2023) and Dahomey (2024) were recent Golden Bear winners so we think this has a legit outside chance at prizing. Here are the full list of odds:
5/1 Yellow Letters (Gelbe Briefe) – İlker Çatak
5/1 Rose – Markus Schleinzer
5/1 Queen at Sea – Lance Hammer
8/1 Salvation (Kurtuluş) – Emin Alper
9/1 Yo (Love Is a Rebellious Bird) – Anna Fitch & Banker White
10/1 We Are All Strangers (我们不是陌生人) – Anthony Chen
10/1 Flies (Moscas) – Fernando Eimbcke
15/1 My Wife Cries (Meine Frau weint) – Angela Schanelec
20/1 At the Sea – Kornél Mundruczó
25/1 Dao – Alain Gomis
25/1 Home Stories (Etwas ganz Besonderes) – Eva Trobisch
30/1 Nina Roza – Geneviève Dulude-De Celles
30/1 Rosebush Pruning – Karim Aïnouz
30/1 Josephine – Beth de Araújo
40/1 The Loneliest Man in Town – Tizza Covi and Rainer Frimmel
45/1 Dust – Anke Blondé
50/1 Everybody Digs Bill Evans – Grant Gee
60/1 In a Whisper (À voix basse) Leyla Bouzid
70/1 Soumsoum, the Night of the Stars (Soumsoum, la nuit des astres) – Mahamat-Saleh Haroun
80/1 Nightborn (Yön Lapsi) – Hanna Bergholm
90/1 Wolfram – Warwick Thornton
100/1 A New Dawn (花緑青が明ける日に) – Yoshitoshi Shinomiya