Updated Cannes 2011 Predictions List

We’re about 36 hours away from Cannes Film Festival’s big unveiling of the 2011 line-up and while the Main Comp should bare very little surprises (see the math below), the one title whose status is still a mystery and could break into the 20 or so titles is Carlos Reygadas’ Post Tenebras Lux. Literally translated as “Light After Darkness”, Reygadas’ semi-autobiographical feature was filmed in cities where the helmer has spent portions of his life: Mexico, England, Spain and Belgium. What this amount to be is the type of film that no pre-festival synopsis will do it justice. If included, I can’t wait for that 8:00 in the morning press screening. Earlier this week, Variety threw in Naomi Kawase’s name into the mix. Titled Hanezu no Tsuki, her film is set in the Asuka period which was known for its significant artistic, social, and political transformations – we’re talking only 500 years A.D. Sticking with Asia, Im Kwon-taek’s Hanji, Shinji Aoyama’s Tokyo Kouen and Eric Khoo’s Tatsumi should be battling for spots in the Un Certain Regard category — which offers more head-scratching scenarios than the comp.

Since our predictions piece right before Berlin, we’ve found out that Andrei Zvyagintsev and Kamen Kalev are past the post production point, and out goes Ilya Khrzhanovsky’s Dau which is still not ready and should be present next year along with WKW and HHH. Bouli Lanners who is now firmly committed to his directing career will offer the Croisette his third film — which should be slotted in the same section where he preemed Eldorado (DF) and just recently added to the list, we should find a new doc from György Pálfi (reported by Cineuropa). Another serious contender for the UCR we find Urszula Antoniak’s Code Blue, while Gaël Morel could receive another invite to the Directors’ Fortnight, this time with S’enfuir avec toi which could possibly be one of three Béatrice Dalle film on the Croisette – we figure Virginie Despentes’ Bye Bye Blondie has a better than average chance and that Alexandre Bustillo & Julien Maury’s Livid is certainly an “out there” possibility. And finally, if I had to toss in a dark horse pick into the mix, why not go with Todd Solondz’s Dark Horse? The filmmaker has been invited to the festival on three separate occasions – so he’d have to had had a stellar post-production phase to accomplish such a feat. Speaking of U.S indie, Sean Durkin’s Martha Marcy May Marlene hasn’t been shown anywhere else since its premiere back in Sundance, and perhaps a second viewing for international audiences might take place in the same sidebar where his short film won last year.

Predictions: Main Competition (Approx. 20 Titles Will Be Selected)
Alps – Giorgos Lanthimos
Chicken with Plums – Marjane Satrapi and Vincent Paronnaud
Elena – Andrei Zvyagintsev
L’empire – Bruno Dumont
Faust – Aleksandr Sokurov
Hanezu no Tsuki – Naomi Kawase
Headshot – Pen-ek Ratanaruang
Le Havre – Aki Kaurismaki
The Kid with a Bike – Dardennes Bros.
Les Bien-Aimés – Christophe Honoré
Love & Bruises – Lou Ye
Melancholia – Lars von Trier
Once Upon a Time in Anatolia – Nuri Bilge Ceylan
Post Tenebras Lux – Carlos Reygadas
Prey – Brillante Mendoza
The Skin That I Inhabit – Pedro Almodovar
Tatsumi – Eric Khoo 
This Must Be the Place – Paolo Sorrentino
We Have A Pope – Nanni Moretti
We Need To Talk About Kevin – Lynne Ramsay

Un Certain Regard/Directors’ Fortnight/Critic’s Week
11 Flowers – Xiaoshuai Wang
Alois Nebel – Tomas Lunak
Les Amants – Nicolas Klotz
Babycall – Pål Sletaune
Beirut Hotel – Danielle Arbid
Bird (L’Oiseau) – Yves Caumon
Bye Bye Blondie Virginie Despentes
Café De Flore – Jean-Marc Vallée
Les Chants de Mandrin – Rabah Ameur-Zaïmeche
Crazy Horse – Frederick Wiseman
Elles (Formerly titled) Sponsoring – Malgoska Szumowska
Et maintenant, on va où? (Where Do We Go Now?) Nadine Labaki
The Exchange – Eran Kolirin
L’Exercice de l’Etat (State Exercise) – Pierre Schoeller
The Fairy – Dominique Abel, Bruno Romy, Fiona Gordon
For Ellen – So Yong Kim
Goodbye First Love – Mia Hansen-Love
Halt auf freier Strecke – Andreas Dressen
House of Tolerance (L’Apollonide) Bertrand Bonello
I Wish – Hirokazu Kore-eda
The Island – Kamen Kalev
Keyhole – Guy Maddin
The Loneliest Planet – Julia Loktev
Loverboy – Cătălin Mitulescu
Martha Marcy May Marlene – Sean Durkin
Meteora – Spiros Stathoulopoulos
Mike – Lars Blumers
Of Women and Horses – Patricia Mazuy
Oslo, 31. august Joachim Trier
Play – Ruben Östlund
Paradies – Ulrich Seidl
Postcards from the Zoo – Edwin
Saya Samurai – Hitoshi Matsumoto
Simon Killer – Antonio Campos
Sleeping Beauty – Julia Leigh
Sons of Norway – Jens Lien
Tanathor – Tawfik Abu-Wael
Tue-Moi (Kill Me) Emily Atef
Whore’s Glory – Michael Glawogger